Key points
- The best way to add value in emerging markets is to deliberately aim for difference against the consensus
- Mispriced growth is often found where coverage is thin or questions are too narrow
- Deep, investigative research can uncover long-term winners before the market catches up
A new paper by investment manager Alex Summers explains how Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Team seeks to use deep and differentiated research to test where we differ from consensus and to build real conviction. Five short case studies help to bring this approach to life.
When consensus fails: EM research in practice
Alex Summers explains why deep research can reveal opportunities others miss.
In short
Emerging markets are often framed through politics, currencies, sentiment and governance. Those forces can shape short-term share prices, but they are rarely what determines long-term returns. Over time, outcomes are driven more fundamentally by the growth of a company’s earnings and by when the market recognises that growth.
That matters because returns in emerging markets are unusually dispersed. For active investors, the opportunity lies in identifying where market expectations are wrong – whether about the durability of growth, the speed at which it can emerge or the potential for a more fundamental change in profitability.
This paper sets out how we approach that task in practice. It explains how we look for potential misjudgements, how we investigate them, and what differentiated research looks like in both widely followed and under-covered parts of the emerging markets universe. The case studies that follow show how this process can lead to better long-term judgements – and, just as importantly, help us avoid being on the wrong side of consensus.
Risk factors
The views expressed should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. They reflect opinion and should not be taken as statements of fact nor should any reliance be placed on them when making investment decisions.
This communication was produced and approved in April 2026 and has not been updated subsequently. It represents views held at the time of writing and may not reflect current thinking.
Potential for Profit and Loss
All investment strategies have the potential for profit and loss, your or your clients’ capital may be at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
This communication contains information on investments which does not constitute independent research. Accordingly, it is not subject to the protections afforded to independent research, but is classified as advertising under Art 68 of the Financial Services Act (‘FinSA’) and Baillie Gifford and its staff may have dealt in the investments concerned.
All information is sourced from Baillie Gifford & Co and is current unless otherwise stated.
The images used in this communication are for illustrative purposes only.
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