Long Term Global Growth Q2 2026 investment update

View transcript

<p><strong>Your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The following update is based on a representative portfolio. As such, stock examples may not be held in every client portfolio, and performance may differ.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Diana Philip:</strong> Markets have had a tendency of late to whipsaw from one perceived certainty to the next, and this quarter was no exception. The market rallied strongly, but it was carried by a very small number of stocks, mostly those benefiting from huge spending on AI infrastructure. But if 22 years of managing LTGG has taught us one lesson, it’s that the market’s strongest conviction today isn’t always a precursor to where the greatest long-term value ultimately emerges. LTGG delivered a positive absolute return this quarter, but it lagged the strong market rally. This is unusual. So let’s unpack why and why we believe today’s environment has actually strengthened the longer-term opportunity.</p> <p>With a five- to 10-year investment horizon, we’re less interested in owning every AI beneficiary than we are the companies with durable competitive advantages that are capable of generating superior returns through the cycle. That means accepting we’ll sometimes miss parts of a rally when today’s elevated demand might not translate into lasting advantage. So rather than holding the memory, optics and CPU names that have really dominated recent market returns, we focused on companies that are occupying genuine technical bottlenecks, not temporary pinch points. And our holdings in NVIDIA, TSMC and ASML reflect that philosophy. Each controls a critical part of the semiconductor ecosystem. Each has capabilities that are difficult to replicate. And each is well-positioned to benefit as AI continues to evolve.</p> <p>The second dynamic this quarter has been a growing disconnect between share prices and business fundamentals. And CATL is a prime example. It continues to strengthen its competitive position in global energy storage, yet its shares have derated. And we viewed that as an opportunity to add to the holding in the quarter. Elsewhere, markets tend to react quickly when growth slows or companies sacrifice near-term profitability to invest for their future.</p> <p>We’ve seen this repeatedly over the years, with the likes of Amazon, Hermès and many of our other outliers. And MercadoLibre is a good recent example. Management has deliberately traded near-term margins for long-term growth through investment in logistics, payments and fulfilment. The shares have weakened, but revenue growth has accelerated to almost 50 percent. While volumes and unit economics continue to improve, we believe those are the metrics that matter far more to the long-term investment case. But that perspective is only possible because our investment horizon is fundamentally different from the market’s.</p> <p>We are not trying to predict next quarter. We are trying to identify the few companies capable of creating exceptional value over the next decade and beyond. And that longer-term horizon gives us a very different hunting ground. The chart on the left shows why. Beyond two or three years, meaningful forecasts largely disappear. In effect, the market stops looking just where we believe the most valuable opportunities begin.</p> <p>And the chart on the right shows why this matters. When we first invested in companies like NVIDIA, Amazon and Tencent, very few investors imagined the growth engines that would ultimately emerge. The greatest value creation came well beyond the market’s forecasting horizon and well beyond the average market holding period. Importantly, those opportunities emerge from many different sectors, geographies and business models, which is why we cast our idea net as widely as possible. And this quarter, we’ve done exactly that, initiating positions in two businesses with very different growth drivers. QXO is transforming the fragmented US building products distribution market through technology and operational excellence, while SpaceX is redefining the economics of access to space.</p> <p>Different industries, different business models, but both share the characteristics we look for. Ambitious leadership, durable competitive advantages and the potential to become exceptional long-term outliers. And that’s what gives us optimism in the portfolio going forward. Our growth isn’t dependent on a single theme or one part of the market. It is built on multiple independent growth engines spanning industries, geographies and stages of maturity. And that breadth is particularly important today.</p> <p>While markets may remain focused on a relatively narrow group of companies, we are looking at a portfolio whose annual free cash flow growth has more than doubled over the past decade to around 35 percent today. Yet, following recent underperformance, the valuation clients are paying for that growth has fallen dramatically. Forward valuation premia are now at decade lows. And for the first time in LTGG’s history, the portfolio trades at a lower price-to-free-cash-flow multiple than the index itself. To us, that’s a remarkable combination. Stronger underlying growth, broader opportunity and more attractive valuations than we’ve seen for many years.</p> <p>That’s why in spite of disappointing recent returns, which need to be acknowledged, we remain not just optimistic about the opportunity ahead, but genuinely excited about the disconnect between great operational growth and current valuations. It really does feel like one of those once-in-a-decade dislocations that presents a hugely compelling opportunity for long-term investors.</p>