China: a tale of two stories

As with any investment, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Richard Lander (RL): Hello and welcome to this live programme from Baillie Gifford.  The latest in a series of webinars where we talk to the managers of the business’ different investment trusts. My name’s Richard Lander of Citywire and today, we’re focusing on China.  I’m talking to Linda Lin and Linda is comanager of the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust. Linda, welcome, thank you for joining us. The title of this webinar is ‘A Tale of Two Stories’. If you could briefly tell us what those two stories are and which one you prefer to follow?

Linda Lin (LL): Thank you, it’s great to be here. I think the phrase ‘a tale of two stories’ really reflects what the people see in China today. One story we often see in the western media is about lagging property market and weak consumer sentiment. Also, rising tension between US and China. If we look at that story, it paints a very negative picture of a slowing economy and, also, it’s really a hard market to invest. Also, we do understand, I think in the last few years, China equity market has been underperforming the global market for quite some time. The other story, the second story is a story we see on the ground, as investors, every day.

It's a story about transformation. That’s about China leading the global manufacturing.  Accounting for about a third of the total. That’s a story about the global leaders in EV, in solar panels, in clean energy and in artificial intelligence. Actually, in 2024, China equity market was one of the best performing markets globally.  Our trust, in 12 months to March 2025, generated around 40% of the return for our shareholders.  Both of the stories are real.  For some long-term growth investors like us, we think the second story is more important. That’s a story about innovation and invention. Also, that’s where the future growth is coming from.

RL: As you mentioned, it’s been a good year for the China market and an even better year for the trust. You said a rise of nearly 40% both in NAV and share price terms. Obviously, after a long period of depression for both the market and the trust. Is this bounce a sign of real lasting recovery or is it more of a tactical rally for the China market?

LL: I believe it’s more than a short-term bounce. I see this as long-term sustainable recovery of the Chinse equity market. Let me break down here for several reasons. Firstly, you probably see since September last year, Beijing has already taken aggressive steps to drive the economy growth. Actually, that’s a very aggressive attitude I haven’t seen from the global financial prices. They’re taking this very seriously. They want growth back to the Chinese economy. Secondly, I think this is a very important message about the government’s attitude to support private companies in China. I’m sure you read the news about President Xi met a group of very important entrepreneurs in China, in January this year.

Including DeepSeek’s founder and, also the founder of Alibaba, Jack Ma. This is a very clear message sending to the global market, they are going to support the private companies which are the true growth drivers of the China economy. Third, I think people worrying about the property market and, also, consumption. I think from a property market perspective, you probably can see the transaction volume in the top tier cities is picking back and, also, the price perspective’s getting stable. From a Chinese consumer perspective, the consumption is picking back, but not in V-shape.  As we know, the Chinese consumer, they’ve saved around USD9 trillion since the pandemic. That’s about twice UK’s GDP.

If they have the confidence to spend, they have the money to spend. We’re seeing a gradual, more healthy recovery of the consumption market. Lastly, which is the most important, is the companies’ fundamentals. In our portfolio, we see the earnings growth is coming back from strong. For example, the platform companies, the technology platform companies in China, most of them doubled their profitability since 2021, but actually, their market-cap has been halved. I think that’s the reason I explained is painting a picture of supporting the growth, the growth is back. Driven by the AI, driven by manufacturing and, also, the domestic policy is turning back to support growth.

RL: It’s been a great 12 months from a macroeconomic point of view. Stock selection is then the next bit. You have outperformed the index quite handsomely over the last 12 months.  What’s worked for you and your comanager in stock selection?

LL: I think the most important question is growth coming back. As you know, the growth style in China has underperformed the value in the last few years. Also, because in our portfolio, we invest in a group of very innovative growth companies, which are private companies. In the last few years, if you look at the index, actually, the SOEs are outperforming private companies quite a bit. I think the whole turning point we have seen is that growth is coming back. That actually answers most of the questions why our portfolio is outperforming. Because our portfolio is strongly biased into the growth innovative companies in China. Also, I think from the valuation perspective, most of the growth companies in China are still trading about 45% discount compared to the global market.

We think in the next few years, if we see the growth of the whole economy coming back and, also, we’re carefully watching the fundamentals of our companies, it’s not a short-term rally, we want them to use AI, to use the innovative methods to drive long-term sustainable revenue growth.

RL: If you had to pick a company from your portfolio as it stands now, that most typifies innovation and growth. Give us an example.

LL: I probably will give two examples. I think one example people probably heard about is BYD, which is the leading EV brand in China. BYD, we bought the holding about a year ago and we see, actually, this company is not only going to be a Chinese leader. You probably read in the news that BYD has already overtaken Tesla in Europe as the new EV sales. We’re thinking about these global leaders. They start from China, but they have huge potential to expand into global markets in the next five to ten years. That’s a brand, actually, you have heard about. The second one, I’m not too sure you’ve heard about, but you definitely see a character called Labubu, which was on the BBC news. This is a toy character and it’s a designer from Hong Kong who designed it.

That is a company called Pop Mart, which is a Chinese younger consumer brand who is very good at toy IP designing. Actually, it’s not only a China brand. It’s a very popular brand in China, but now they are expanding to US, to the UK. I’m sure you see a lot of younger generation or the younger ones, they are waiting outside London Oxford Circus store.  This is actually the two stories we’re seeing. China is not only the China player and some of the brands, actually, they have strong potential to be the next generation of global winners.

RL: Both really interesting examples. I own a BYD car and MG. I don’t have kids who are young enough to buy that stuff. You emphasise long-term growth, company fundamentals. Is there ever a clash when that comes up against political risk in the Chinese market? How do you stay true to those fundamentals when political risk is always there in the background?

LL: That’s a very fair question. That actually is a question we ask ourselves regularly. Staying focused on long-term fundamentals in a market like China is not always easy. As you say, sometimes we face political uncertainty, which understandably makes the investor very nervous. We find that actually, with the right mindset and process, it’s possible for us to stay grounded. I think at Baillie Gifford, we have been investing in China for over 30 years. The past experiences told us sometimes the headlines can be very noisy, but what really drives the long-term return for our clients, are company specific factors. It’s about innovation. It’s about leadership and resilience. In that perspective, our Shanghai based research team plays a very important role in this.

They help some of us based in Edinburgh to look passed the sentiment or the headline news in the western market and focus on what’s really driven China to change in the long-term trend. So that’s one. Secondly, we also manage the risk very carefully. We don’t normally predict the events on the political side, but we always challenge ourselves to think what’s going to change our company fundamentals. That’s the reason in our ‘10Q’ which is ten question research framework. The first question we ask for that company we bring into the portfolio is whether this company contribute to China and the global economy culture and society development? We try to push ourselves to understand whether this company aligns with the long-term development of China and globally.

 Also, we manage a diversified portfolio. In China Trust we can manage about 40 to 80 stocks, which means we can invest into different companies with different global potential and drivers. We know the political backdrop in China sometimes has lots of complexity into the investment case, but we don’t see a reason that we avoid it.  We treat it as something we should respect. Study it and, also, account for it. Over time, what we have learnt, we have seen the best companies in China are often able to adapt to the challenge and strive in the long-term. Even in a very challenging, shifting economic environment.

RL: Let’s talk about innovation. The last few months we’ve seen DeepSeek AI take the world by storm. We’ve seen robots that run marathons and box each other. Where do you see the next wave of world-class Chinese innovative companies coming from? 

LL: DeepSeek is a really game-changing moment for the China technology space. As you know, in the last few years, China has faced a lot of challenges on the restriction on chips and semiconductor supply. In quite a few years, I think there are lots of concerns about whether China can catch up in the AI space. DeepSeek is one of the examples to prove China can produce the most advanced Large Language Models in the world.  That’s not only DeepSeek. I think Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent after DeepSeek. Loads of technology companies in China will quickly apply those DeepSeek models into their business because DeepSeek is much cheaper than the global models. In China, we keep asking ourselves, who is going to be the next wave of AI agent?

Is that Tencent, is that ByteDance, is that Alibaba or some new company? That actually makes the Chinese innovation igniting again after the DeepSeek moment. That’s one part. Secondly, for the semiconductor business. I know we’re having a challenge from the chips from Nvidia, but in the longer-term, China is very sure that they’re going to have a self-sufficient situation in this. We see some local champions coming out.  For example, there’s a company called Horizon Robotics, which we invested in the trust last year. It’s overtaking Nvidia as one of the solutions for China in the chips for autonomous driving. That’s something we think, in China, we’ll probably see the next generation of the companies coming from there.

That last one I think is really important, is clean energy. We talk about BYD, but in China it’s not only about BYD. It’s about CATL, which is the largest EV battery and energy storage system provider. They have about 40% of the global market share and they’re helping the Chinese AI companies to build the next generation of the clean energy datacentres. At this moment, I think energy costs in China is about 45% cheaper than in the US.  We think the long run of the technology rise globally, is not only in AI, it’s AI plus robotics. It’s AI plus robotics plus clean energy. That’s three of the areas we’re thinking probably where we’ll see some very exciting next-generation global winners from China.

RL: I’m going to put the case for people who don’t believe in the China story.  On the one hand you’ve got experienced investors who say it’s uninvestable. They were saying this even before the current trade war blew up when President Trump came into office.  You also have some macroeconomists who say China is deglobalizing.  The demographics are poor and it’s a top-down economic model. Two separate groups of people there, but I’m guessing your answer to them would be the same story.  What would you say to them? 

LL: Firstly, I clearly understand where the concern is coming from. We think walking away from China is a mistake. While China has the regulatory and geopolitical complexity, it’s also the house of the world’s most exciting growth stories like I mentioned. Crucially, I take our China Trust portfolio as an example. More than 85% of our portfolio’s revenue generation is still from China. If we believe the growth story is still there, I think that’s about Chinese consumption. That’s about Chinese local markets. It has less relevance to the global market. Also, if some investors want to avoid China, means that they miss about a third of the world’s best growth opportunities. Also, like I said they’re all trading at about 45% discount to the global market. Sometimes it’s not only about the geopolitical risk, actually, it’s about opportunity cost. Whether you want to bear the cost to miss that wave of companies from China.

RL: You mentioned before, President Xi meeting the biggest private companies. Again, some sceptics might say that this is window dressing, and it’s subordinate to his aims as leading the country in the style that he’s led it. What makes you convinced that it’s more than just window dressing?

LL: Firstly, I just want to emphasise how important the private sector is to China. I think most investors are probably thinking China is still a country driven by the SOEs, but it’s not. Private companies are contributing around 65% of the GDP and 75% of the innovation. Also, 80% of the urban jobs. Let’s think twice how important that sector is for China growth. We’re watching the policies very closely in China and, also, in Edinburgh. Totally understand that people are worrying about window dressing. The pendulum can swing back very quickly. We have seen the direction of travel is right. Like I mentioned, January meeting 2025 with a group of entrepreneurs is a very important public signal they’re sending out.

We also see the real policies supporting private companies. For example, the tax cuts and the consumer subsidy to those ecommerce platforms.  Also, more importantly, the new private economy protection law was passed in April 2025. That makes a very formal commitment to protect and, also, promote the private economy in China. Again, things can change very quickly, so that’s the reason we stay cautious. We stay very close to watch what the real policies coming out. We’ve been talking to different founders. We’ve been talking to loads and loads of private companies in China, to collect more balanced feedback.

RL: Turning back to the portfolio for a minute. Your active share in the portfolio is 65%, which is a bit low by Baillie Gifford standards. Some of them are much higher. How actively different is your portfolio to the index and to a certain extent, does that matter when you’re investing in China?

LL: Actually, it’s true that 65% of active share may look low for Baillie Gifford strategies.  Especially if you look at some the most growthy global portfolios.  In the context of China, we think active share tells us only part of the story.  If you look at the benchmark we’re talking about is the MCSI All China index. If you look into the index, this index is heavily weighted to large state-owned enterprises in sectors like banking, financials, energy, and telecoms. We did underweight those sectors quite significantly in the past few years because like I said, Baillie Gifford China Trust is looking for growth, innovative and private companies in China. In that perspective, we hold more than nearly 90% of our portfolio invested in those private, innovative and growth companies.

Such as healthcare, artificial intelligence, EVs, consumer brands. I think that’s something we think the active share metrics probably don’t reflect the full part of the story. That doesn’t mean we avoid the SOEs. We take each company very different.  We just want to make sure we’re not trying to match the index by only investing in those SOEs.  We also would like to own some of the very innovative SOE companies in China as well.

RL: You can invest up to 20% in unlisted names. What are you finding there?  Can you give us an example of one of the unlisted companies you’re most excited about?

LL: If you look at the portfolio, we have one unlisted company in our portfolio, which is ByteDance. TikTok’s parent company. We hold about 10% of ByteDance in our portfolio. We can invest up to 20%. I think that gives us a very strong advantage to research and invest and, also, hold those private companies for our shareholders. You probably can tell, some of the private companies in China are probably the most exciting growth companies globally. They will stay private for longer because they are very cash generative. They don’t really need to raise money from the capital markets. They also do share buybacks and dividends. In that perspective, if we see this type of opportunity, we have the option to invest for our shareholders.   
You probably can tell, we’ve been very selective because 20% of those unlisted opportunities mean we have less liquidity and, also, the valuation [unclear 23:53] probably would not be as timely as the secondary market.  We only invest into the opportunities in the private market. The risk reward can actually match the excitement for our investment cases.

RL: ByteDance is obviously very exciting. Do you worry that they might be forced to sell TikTok?

LL: Yes, if you look at our valuation process, to be honest, when we valued the upside of ByteDance, we didn’t include the US market for the valuation at all. As you know, ByteDance grow very excitingly in China. Also, Southeast Asia and Europe. We still don’t really know what President Trump’s administration will do with TikTok, but I think what we can control is when we’re doing the valuation cases, don’t be too optimistic, we just take the US market out of the valuation.

RL: Firstly, you’ve had investors who’ve been with you through thick and thin. For those that have stayed the course, what do you think has changed now, that gives you genuine optimism about the future of the trust and the market?

LL: It has been a few very difficult years for our shareholders. Especially the period from 2021 to 2024. Like I discussed with you, we have seen meaningful changes from domestic policies. From the government’s attitude towards private companies. We are hoping the growth story for China is coming back. More importantly, we think the valuation in Chinese market is still very attractive. An entry point to this market also is a critical moment for our shareholders to take consideration. Also, the most encouraging sign we saw from the end of last year. For the first time in the last few years, we saw international investors inflow to China. We think that’s a sustainable long-term recovery of the confidence and, also, the performance of this market. We also stay cautious on some of the factors, like geopolitical risks, especially the relationship with US and China 

RL: How would you assess the biggest opportunity and the biggest risk going forward for investing in China and your trust?

LL: Our principle is very clear. We stay long-term, but we also stay selective. We said we want to invest into the best group of growth stories in China. That eventually, the return will compensate the risk we’re taking to invest in this market. That means we will raise the bar to select the companies. We’re not only looking for slow return opportunities. We will find the most exciting opportunities giving us the long-term potential returns for our clients.

RL: We’ve had quite a few viewers’ questions come in. One is you mentioned EVs and BYD and how exciting that is. “What about other forms of transport such as robotaxis and vertical take-off electric helicopters?” They’re making progress in the west. Certainly robotaxis. Is the same thing happening in China?

LL: Yes, if you look at EVs, China is leading the world. That’s not only about cars. If you’re thinking about the future generation of robotics, the car is a type of robotics. We’re thinking about autonomous driving will have the Apple moment in the next two to three years. That means we’re excited to see, in the next three to five years, China will have the L3, which is a hands-off solution for the city commute. In our portfolio perspective, we have a holding called Horizon Robotics, which is the solution for the future of autonomous driving in China. They’re the largest provider of the cheap spot on driving solutions, as they’re providing the software service to those car brands in China.

They’re not only doing the business in China, they’re thinking of the global expansion to Europe because Volkswagen is one of their largest shareholders. That’s one very exciting story in our portfolio. Secondly, when we’re talking about e-vehicle market, the portfolio holding called CATL, which is a battery company, but actually, they are one of the largest shareholders to the Chinese auto-flight, which is a leading e-vehicle company.  In China we think the future city will run like a computer. We’ll probably have drones flying over. We’ll have solar panels. We’ll have batteries to provide the energy and we’ll collect the data. One day I can have call with you in the car, probably in the next three to four years.

RL: Another viewer has asked this question and I think you touched on it. He says, “Jensen Huang of Nvidia fame, says he thinks US sanctions on tech exports are actually helping and not hindering China. Helping China forge ahead in innovation.” Do you think that’s the case?

LL: Yes. I think in the longer-term and we’re talking about in the next five to ten years, that definitely will push China to have a self-sufficient solution. I think in Jensen’s interview, there’s another part he put another emphasis is, in the global market more than half of the AI talent are Chinese. That’s driven those Chinese to return to the country to do their own business. If there’s so many limitations and, also, most importantly in China, I think the Chinese government is trying to let the different companies cooperate to bring this self-sufficiency earlier than we were thinking about. For example, they’re telling those foundry companies, you cannot burn too much capital, you have to work with your designers. You have to work with your customers.  

That means this top-down industrial policy will further speedup the self-sufficiency journey in China. We’re still thinking that will probably take five to ten years.  It’s not in the next year or two we’ll see China will have a full solution for that.

RL: Another question, this time about geopolitical risk. “Linda, you talked about tensions with the US and how unpredictable that is. What about another unpredictable factor, which is China’s relations with Taiwan?” No one’s going to ask you to predict if an invasion might happen or when, but how much does that play into your thinking about the way you construct the portfolio?

LL: I think that’s a question we consistently get from the clients. Again, I’m not an expert talking about timing or things. From someone like me, growing up in China, educated overseas, I would say it took China about 100 years to take Hong Kong back. I think China probably will be much more patient and long-term thinking than the rest of the world’s thinking. Taiwan is not something away from Chinese nationals. People are thinking about Tawain as brothers and sisters. It’s blood related so, we hope for peace, but again, we will closely watch how the geopolitical situation happens there. We will try to think about how to manage that risk.

Again, we manage the revenue from the mainland. More than 85%. What extreme case happens is probably not only the bad things for China. If you think that’s going to be the case, what happens to the US market?  What happens to the Southeast Asia market? I think that’s going to be a chain effect not only for China, it will be a big impact to global.

RL: Why do you think the other story in your tale of two stories, the view has grown up in the west and particularly, the media, that China faces a really challenging economic outlook?

LL: I think it’s quite interesting because I went back to China a month ago. I see many foreign visitors to China, especially in Shanghai. As you know, the Chinse government opened the visa exemption for quite a few countries, including countries from Europe. I would say if you have a chance to visit China, China is definitely not the place we read on social media in the west. 20 years ago, it’s a country with very highly developed infrastructure and friendly people. There are lots of beautiful places to visit. Seeing is believing. If you have a chance, do visit China and put that into your holiday plan.

RL: Picking up on our discussion earlier, we’ve seen robots that fight. We’ve seen robots that run marathons.  What’s the next leftfield thing that we might see come out of China?

LL: The robotics industry in China is not only for something like entertainment robots we’re seeing. If you look at advanced manufacturing in China, Chinese companies have already applied this automation into their protection space for quite some time. I was amazed to go to one of the factories of our holdings called Midea. With all the robots in one of their factories. There’s no human inside of it and they can produce a washing machine in 30 seconds. It’s assembled together. I think this is the reason why China has some advantage to lead the next wave of manufacturing globally. It’s about the scale. It’s about the innovation and, also, it’s about the cost.

China labour costs are no longer the cheapest in the world, but it’s the automation manufacturing technology, it’s the future of the robots coming in, I think China probably will keep this manufacturing advantage for quite some time.

RL: This reader spotted this story in the Financial Times yesterday. It’s about the rise of people drinking in illicit bars in Beijing because they’re so much cheaper than licensed bars. There’s a serious point to this. “What does this tell us about the state of the Chinese consumer if they’re down spending and going to places that are cheaper? Is this not a phenomenon of a weak consumer?”

 We need to link the consumption in China to the property market because one of the key reasons the consumption has been weak in China, is the dropping property prices. In China, for the family wealth perspective, the property market probably accounts for about 70% of the family wealth. When you face this kind of uncertainty, when you face this type of challenge in your dropping property price, I think people become cautious to spend. That’s probably for the older generation because when they feel nervous, they save. Like I said, they’ve saved a lot in the last three years. When there’s sentiment coming back, when the property prices stabilise, I think people will spend more in the future.

The young generation is very different in China. Probably because of one child policy, for example me, I have two sides of grandparents. I have my parents. I don’t really need to be too concerned about property in China or someone younger than me. They’re very willing to spend on experiences. If you look at the box tickets and concerts, shows, actually the volume is picking up a lot. That means the next generation of consumers in China not only put the focus on property, buying some fixed assets, they’re enjoying their life. The bars you mentioned, the travel industry, they want to pay more for experiences. One of the very interesting stories coming out is Luckin Coffee.

You’ve probably not heard about that too much in global markets, but in China that’s a younger generation consumer coffee brand. They overtook Starbucks by the number of stores opened in China. In terms of that, we’re excited to see the next generation of consumer brands who can meet the demand, meet the expectations of the next generation younger consumer. Pop Mart is one of the examples. I think we need to talk to those global brands who are really losing market share in China. What’s going on? Is your product meeting the expectation of the younger generation or actually, you need to spend more R&D into one of the largest consumer markets globally?

RL: On that optimistic note we’re going to wrap up. That’s all we’ve got time for. Linda, thank you so much. I think it’s been an absolutely fascinating discussion today. Thank you to everybody for all your questions. We do have more sessions like this coming up. Please do keep an eye out for those if you found today useful. Until next time, goodbye.

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust plc

Annual past performance to 31 March each year (net%)

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Past performance is not a guide to future results. 

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• The Trust invests in overseas securities. Changes in the rates of exchange may also cause the value of your investment (and any income it may pay) to go down or up.
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• The Trust can borrow money to make further investments (sometimes known as "gearing" or
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• The Trust can make use of derivatives which may impact on its performance.
• Investment in smaller companies is generally considered higher risk as changes in their share prices may be greater and the shares may be harder to sell. Smaller companies may do less well in periods of unfavourable economic conditions.
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• The Trust can buy back its own shares. The risks from borrowing, referred to above, are increased when a trust buys back its own shares.
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